Nobody Knows What They’re Doing
The more entrepreneurs I meet, the more I hear the following: “I have no idea what I’m doing. I just figure it out as I go.” It’s not an exaggeration, either. There’s no manual on how to run a business. There’s no recipe for success. There’s no algorithm that makes an idea successful.
Some people say it all comes down to luck. Some say it’s all about how long you spend trying to make something work. Others say it’s about the a mindset, the strength of a network, social privilege, timing, or other factors. The truth is: no one knows. And if you don't believe me, listen to what I've learned from experts in various fields.
Comedians John Cleese and Rob Schneider discussed this topic live at a comedy club on January 24, 2021 in Phoenix. Cleese repeatedly stated that no one knows what they’re doing. At first it was funny, seeming like a joke, but he pressed on with some anecdotes. One of his closest friends is a surgeon with global renown. People from all over the world see him for his special skills. He told Cleese, "I'd estimate 90% of people in my field don't really know what they're doing."
Cleese shared another anecdote from another close friend of his who's a globally-recognized leader in psychotherapy. The estimate was about the same: 80-90% of people in the field don't know what they're doing.
Cleese went on to share story after story about real world issues to demonstrate that people, especially "experts," don't know what they're doing. From pandemic response to stock market investments to predicting the weather: the experts are making it up as they go.
Watch Laurie Anderson's excellent performance of "Only an Expert" on David Letterman in 2010
One Nassim Taleb quote that drove my first book is: "In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social "science" and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively" (https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/942367860709609472). Having worked directly with several executives and business owners, I can attest to the situational imitation, mimicry, and role-playing.
Guitarist Robert Fripp's quote was also a major theme in my book: "We are not bad people because we are clueless, but better to know we are clueless; otherwise, we are dangerous" (https://www.dgmlive.com/diaries/Robert%20Fripp/rf-diary-april14-2020). How do we know we are clueless? When we pay attention to what we are doing and actually measure our own ability to predict, perform, and prioritize.
In my newest book, I wrote about how it took me 22 years to learn one of Fripp's notorious and "impossible" works on the guitar: Fracture. It took me 17 years of fumbling before I finally spent a week with Fripp himself, who started the seminar saying, "How many of you are self-taught musicians?" I raised my hand along with a few of my classmates. He followed with, "So someone who knew nothing about the guitar, nothing about music performance, and nothing about music theory taught you everything you know?"
Learn why Fripp’s “Fracture” is impossible to play
An entrepreneur friend and I recently discussed that no two businesses can be run the same way because no two people are alike. What works for one person may not work for another. If we believe that every person is unique, then how could two people do anything in the same way? Businesses are often the manifestation of the founders beginning with their capabilities and ending with their imperfections. The theme touched upon a demon I battled in previous years: imposter syndrome (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impostor_syndrome).
When I believed myself to be an imposter, I had this notion that everyone else knew what they were doing and I was the only idiot bumbling his way through every day. Years later I learned about the Spotlight effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotlight_effect) and realized that many people probably feel like imposters once they start thinking for themselves and acting with authority. Imposter syndrome began to feel like a symptom of a societal belief that "we know exactly what we're doing, how we're handling it, and how to respond to it." Who knows who the "we" is that's in control, but it's there.
The more I listen to people who have a clue, the more I realize that most people (especially me!) don't know what they're doing. The better I get at any skill, the more I realize how little I used to know and how much more learning I have to do. To learn that Robert Fripp song, I had to re-learn how to play the guitar after 17 years. I also had to re-learn how to sit, stand, breathe, and use my body well enough to approach the impossible song. It was such a humbling experience that I titled the experience "Failure to Fracture."
I've met some of the world's intelligent and capable experts across a variety of domains. Very few of them admit to actually knowing what they're doing. The most humble of them admit their teams do much of the work, or that they're only good at a couple of things and they have support systems that handle the rest. I can't tell you how many people have told me that "it's all different behind the scenes."
We are all unique. There's no "one way." Enjoy my friend Karl’s take: The Danger in Listening to Experts.
I'll close with this quote from Carol Dweck from her excellent book, Mindset:
“We often see books with titles like The Ten Secrets of the World’s Most Successful People crowding the shelves of bookstores, and these books may give many useful tips. But they’re usually a list of unconnected pointers like “Take more risks!” Or “Believe in yourself!” While you’re left admiring people who can do that, it’s never clear how these things fit together or how you could ever become that way. So you’re inspired for a few days, but basically the world’s most successful people still have their secrets.”
